News - Page 9 of 27 - End Fuel Poverty Coalition

Plans to axe energy Windfall Tax branded premature

The Government has set out plans to wind down the Windfall Tax on energy firms in response to demands from the industry.

Analysts from Uplift told Sky News that the introduction of this price floor will further undermine an already weak windfall tax and paving the way for further oil and gas extraction.

The Energy Profits Levy already contained a loophole which could have helped tackle fuel poverty last winter, as well as acting as a handout to the fossil fuel industry with the UK government expected to give highly profitable oil & gas companies £11.4 billion in tax breaks to develop new fields.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“Energy bills are predicted to remain high and levels of household energy debt are still surging.

“Any talk of reducing or ending the windfall tax while millions still struggle through the energy bills crisis is premature.

“The Government should keep all options on the table to ensure the funding is available to fix Britain’s broken energy system into the long term.”

The decision has been described as shortsighted in light of the lack of long-term certainty about energy bills and Greenpeace UK’s climate campaigner, Georgia Whitaker, said:

“The Government’s windfall tax on oil and gas companies already contains more loopholes than a block of Swiss cheese. And now they want to scrap it altogether.”

Majority of Brits oppose hydrogen heating trials

Just 15% of surveyed Brits would choose to take part in hydrogen heating trials, with almost three in five rejecting the idea outright, according to a new poll, commissioned by the Warm this Winter campaign.

It comes as parliamentarians continue to discuss the passage of the government-backed Energy Bill that would legislate for the creation of trial “hydrogen villages” at proposed towns, including Whitby and Redcar in the north of England.

Residents in both towns have voiced concerns about being forced to take part amidst warnings of long-term extra cost and heightened risk of explosion. These were also concerns topping a list of worries respondents to the poll have about hydrogen heating.

Just under half said they are concerned about the fact that hydrogen is four times as explosive as gas, and (46%) said they were worried that it could add costs to bills.

Cornwall Insight found that hydrogen could add on average 70% to bills from 2025. Home appliances will also have to be changed to accept this new fuel, with cautious estimates suggesting it would cost approximately £171 billion to convert appliances and infrastructure to hydrogen across the UK.

A recent Global Witness briefing pointed out that as well as issues over cost and risk, hydrogen will also do nothing to help the climate crisis, despite industry attempts to paint hydrogen heating as a climate solution.

While the Government is trying to reintroduce a levy on customer bills to pay for hydrogen projects in the Energy Bill being debated by MPs, just 3% of poll respondents would want to see hydrogen heating paid for through energy bills. Over two thirds (67%) wanting energy companies to foot the bill for any costs related to hydrogen heating.

Alice Harrison, Fossil Fuels Campaign Leader at Global Witness, which is part of the Warm This Winter campaign, said:

“This polling makes it fundamentally clear that the fossil fuel industry is losing its battle to hoodwink the public into thinking hydrogen heating is a worthy solution to either the climate or energy crisis. People are rightly concerned about the risk of explosion and associated costs, particularly as hydrogen heating will not stop climate breakdown – in fact it could worsen it.”

“The absolute hammer blow for hydrogen heating is that, given the choice, the majority of people surveyed would reject taking part in the trials. Add this to the wave of opposition at proposed trial sites, any government pursuing this reckless agenda would be at best out of touch, at worst running foul of democracy. Hydrogen heating has no place in the Energy Bill.”

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“Hydrogen is not the solution to keeping people warm in the winter. Used in the home it is explosive, expensive and damaging to the environment as it is currently produced.

“MPs should keep in mind how unpopular this policy is with the public who can ill afford any more unnecessary increases to their energy bills.”

Public urged to claim energy bills vouchers before June deadline

The government is urging UK energy customers with a prepayment meter (PPM) to redeem any unclaimed Energy Bill Support Scheme vouchers before they expire at the end of June.

Claim Your Energy Voucher day takes place on May 31, and marks one month until unredeemed vouchers are due to expire.

The government provided households across the country with £400 of energy bills support from October 2022 until March 2023 through the Energy Bills Support Scheme. For traditional prepayment meter customers, this support came in the form of vouchers delivered monthly by text, email or post.

Previous data revealed that in some areas of the country more than 1 in 20 payments were not delivered or claimed during the scheme.

The latest government data shows that energy firms still owe £130m to households through unredeemed PPM vouchers.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“We’ve been calling on the government for some time to rectify this situation and ensure that every household receives the support that they are owed.

“We are delighted that they are listening, and we urge every PPM customer to double-check that they received and redeemed their full £400 in vouchers during the scheme.”

The Government advises that if customers have their vouchers already, they must take their ID and vouchers to a Post Office or Paypoint to redeem them before June 30.

Those on a traditional prepayment meters who have not received the vouchers, or are unsure of how to redeem them, or need a voucher to be reissued, should contact their energy supplier.

Households using prepayment meters who use alternative fuels such as LPG, heating oil or biomass as the main way they heat their homes also have until June 30 to use their vouchers worth up to £200 in energy bills support.

Other households who are due support through an “alternative method” (such as those in park homes or on care home complexes) have also to apply for the scheme, with the Mirror revealing that just 13% of eligible households had applied.

Price cap warning as Ofgem set summer bills

Millions of domestic energy customers will see their energy bills stay at near record highs.

The latest Ofgem Price Cap announcement has set new prices for what consumers will pay for energy from 1 July 2023, with the average household seeing an energy bill of £2,074. If customers use more than the average consumption, they will still pay more than this figure as the cap limits the unit cost, not the total bill.

Up until as recently as March, the average household energy bill stood at £2,100 due to the impact of Government support programmes. Last summer, average bills were £1,971 meaning energy will be 5.23% more expensive in summer 2023.

Predictions are that future price caps will set average energy bills at £1,976 from 1 October and rising back to £2,045 from 1 January 2024.

According to End Fuel Poverty Coalition records, this means that energy bills will be roughly:

DOUBLE what they were in 2020.
60% ABOVE what they were before the invasion of Ukraine.
At a similar level to last winter, but with people having less ability to pay as the crisis continues.

Anne Vivian-Smith, a disabled former community worker from Nottingham, said:

“Last winter I couldn’t keep myself warm as energy bills soared. To learn that I might have to face the same level of energy bills again is a frightening prospect. Other bills have gone up and the cost of living has soared – we’re less able to pay our bills now than we were last winter.”

Junnie Braithwaite is 56 and lives in northeast London. Her socially rented apartment is split over two floors, and she needs to use a stairlift because of fibromyalgia and arthritis. She said:

“It’s give with the one hand and take with the other, I might get a few quid off my energy bill but that’s swallowed up by food prices going through the roof. I still don’t have peace of mind and I am already dreading next winter when my energy bills will go up again.”

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“The sting in the tail to this announcement is that customers are still going to be paying roughly the same for their energy as last winter.

“And after months of inflation and the wider cost of living crisis, people are even less able to afford these high energy bills.

“The government needs to use the summer to fix Britain’s broken energy system, because for millions of people the energy bills crisis is far from over. This means ramping up energy efficiency programmes, helping the public with energy debt and reforming energy pricing arrangements so people don’t suffer again this winter.”

Research for the Warm This Winter campaign found that over 9 million adults lived in cold damp homes in winter 2022/23 and official figures showed cases of hypothermia surged by 36%.

Tessa Khan, Director of Uplift which is part of the Warm This Winter campaign, commented:

“Britain’s broken energy system is set to cause another winter of misery, with fuel poverty affecting many of the most vulnerable. But as people continue to struggle through the energy bills crisis, the energy producers will continue to reap record profits.”

Fixed term deals which may now come onto the market may not be the solution, with recent figures from Future Energy Associates show that these may boost energy firms’ profits and be more expensive to consumers than the standard variable tariff.

The Government has announced funding to help with the cost of living, but it will not help around 1.7 million households in fuel poverty and represents a real-terms cut in support compared to last year.

Other inequalities in the energy market will remain with customers paying by standard credit (i.e. paying by cash, cheque or bank transfer) hit with a significant price premium.

Meanwhile some regions, such as Merseyside and North Wales will pay substantially more than others, such as those in the East Midlands.

Bethan Sayed from Climate Cymru said:

“The regional inequalities are deeply unfair, with people in North Wales paying substantially more than other parts of the UK for their energy. This is compounded by people living in old, leaky homes or off grid, and those on prepayment meters getting less energy for their money. This needs to change.”

Jonathan Bean from Fuel Poverty Action added:

“As people sink deeper into debt, basics like washing your clothes are becoming unaffordable luxuries for many. We need long-term solutions to fix Britain’s unfair energy system, such as providing a free ‘energy for all’ allowance for those that need it.”

Energy firms cash in on cost of living crisis

Energy firms have been cashing in on the energy bills crisis as Shell has held its AGM.

In the first three months of the year alone, Shell made a profit of more than £7.6bn. BP have also recorded bumper profits, enjoying one of the company’s best ever starts to the year. Despite the windfall tax, energy firms have still been able to profit from the misery of people living in cold damp homes.

National Grid, the firm which runs the energy network, similarly reported a boost in annual profits to £4.6bn. This had led to calls for a higher windfall tax for energy companies.

Scotland-based energy firm SSE’s profits have also rocketed to £2.53bn.

To put these profits into context, Energy UK estimated that the current energy debt in the UK has soared to around £3.6bn. Profits from the National Grid alone could completely wipe out energy debt for the entire country.

Meanwhile, a groundbreaking report from One Earth has calculated that fossil fuel companies owe at least $209bn in annual climate reparations to compensate communities which are suffering climate catastrophes as a direct result of global warming.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“The scare stories from industry about the impact of the windfall tax on energy firms have not materialised, with more massive profits being posted. Meanwhile the Ofgem Price Cap is set to keep household energy levels at historic highs.

“Closing the energy firms’ windfall tax loophole could have almost eradicated fuel poverty last winter, but instead people suffered in cold damp homes.

“Now we are seeing the first signs that energy suppliers – as well as the producers – will be cashing in on the energy bills crisis with fixed term energy deals designed to boost their profits.”

Energy Bills Support Scheme gaps hit areas of high fuel poverty

New analysis of Energy Bills Support Scheme (EBSS) data reveals that in some areas of the country more than one in twenty payments were not delivered or vouchers left redeemed.

Regional data from the first five months of the scheme has revealed the areas with the highest rates for missed payments are some of the areas hardest hit by fuel poverty.

These include the London Borough of Brent where 6.62% of payments have not been delivered or redeemed, Birmingham (4.68%), Stoke (4.00%), Wolverhampton (4.26%), Coventry (3.86%) and Sandwell (4.21%).

Rural areas are also hit with poor delivery rates, such as Na h-Eileanan Siar (4.86%), Pendle (4.28%) and even Rishi Sunak’s own backyard of Richmondshire (4.08%, which equates to £285k still owed to his constituents by energy firms).

In Scotland, the Herald reports that that the value of these missed payments tops £29m. In cities like Birmingham, Glasgow and Leeds, the value of these missed payments are over £4m a piece.

Data for the full scheme also reveals that energy firms still owe £241m to households through the support scheme, a majority of that being through unclaimed PPM vouchers with new figures expected to be published next week.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, which is part of the Warm This Winter campaign, commented:

“Since the initial revelations about the missing payments, it is welcome that energy firms have made more effort to track down customers and deliver payments to them, but this work must continue until they have exhausted every avenue to get money into the hands of people who need it.

“However, what is very concerning about these figures, is that the Energy Bills Support Scheme is not getting through to the very areas of the country which need it most.

“In towns and cities, which will also be the battlegrounds in the next general election, households have been left in the cold this winter as payments are not getting through and vouchers are left unredeemed.

“But even in rural areas – where many homes have also suffered from delays in payments not shown in these figures by being offgrid – there are still massive gaps in the support getting through.

“If anyone feels they have missed out on Energy Bills Support Scheme payments they should contact their energy firm immediately.”

Frazer Scott, CEO of Energy Action Scotland, said:

“It is simply disgraceful that so many households have been failed by Government support. The EBSS vouchers expire in June and it is now unlikely that most of these households will now receive some or all of the £400 to which they are entitled.

“People will have simply gone without heat and power across the coldest months putting their health and wellbeing at risk. It is made all the more difficult due to the credit holding limitations of older prepayment electricity meters. This ranges from £99 to £250 depending on your meter and supplier. The larger the outstanding voucher value, if you have it, the more difficult it may be to apply it.

“Those living in rural areas face even more barriers to accessing the value of their vouchers with many having to pay significant travel costs to access their local post office or other redemption point.

“It isn’t right that those in the lowest incomes are enduring yet another unfairness in a system that for the majority, including the most wealthy of households, people with multiple homes, was provided automatically.”

Any money unclaimed by the public or undelivered by the energy firms is due to be returned to the Government after deadline for claims to the scheme ends in June.

ENDS

Full Data Set Available: EFPC April energy-bills-support-scheme-gb-payments-april-2023

Forced PPM threats still a problem for vulnerable households

Energy companies are continuing to threaten households with warrants for entry to forcibly install prepayment meters (PPMs), despite a voluntary end to the practice coming into force in February 2023.

BBC Radio 4’s You & Yours programme and the I newspaper has reported that energy firms who agreed to the voluntary ban are continuing to threaten households with forced installation.

The forced installation of prepayment meters is especially a concern for vulnerable households, as changing to a PPM runs the risk of households having to suddenly stop using energy as the meter runs out of money, which can mean that these people will suffer the worst effects of living in cold damp homes during winter months.

Desperate consumers have taken to social media asking for advice after they have continued to receive threats of court warrants for forced installation of prepayment meters from their energy companies.

Screenshots posted to an online group show email and post correspondence from debt collection firms and energy companies claiming that they will obtain a court warrant to forcibly enter their properties and install the meter.

Many of the threats posted from energy companies are taken from emails and letters sent after the voluntary end to forced installation was imposed earlier in 2023.

One woman based in Scotland complained that Scottish Power had failed to replace her faulty meter for three years, meaning that all of her readings during this time had been estimated. In screenshots of email correspondence, Conexus (employed by Scottish Power) insist that she must settle outstanding debt based on estimated readings or they will apply for a warrant of entry via the courts. The woman claims that the debt company has hounded her for some time and refused to discuss the matter with Scottish Power.

Another couple who are vulnerable, receiving benefits and suffering from chronic health conditions, highlighted that their energy company OVO had failed to take their vulnerable status (and the fact that they are on the Priority Services Register) into account and had passed their case to a debt collection agency. This agency is now threatening to apply for a warrant for forcible installation of a prepayment meter in the couple’s home.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“Energy firms are just not getting the message. The forced prepayment meters scandal should have been a wake up call as to how they treat their customers. But the evidence is mounting that this is not the case. It appears that they continue to threaten people with prepayment meters. This causes huge amounts of distress to often vulnerable households.

“It’s clear that the voluntary approach to banning forced prepayment meters is just not working and MPs must now act to bring in a legal ban to the practice through the Energy Bill.

“It’s no longer enough for MPs just to claim they support vulnerable customers. They need to take the action required to ban forced prepayment meters.”

Almost three-quarters of the public would back changes to the Energy Bill to ensure the Government introduces a legal ban to the forced transfer of homes onto PPMs, according to figures from the Warm This Winter campaign.

An amendment to the Energy Bill has been tabled by Anne McLaughlin MP to bring in such a ban and the End Fuel Poverty Coalition urges all MPs to add their names to support amendments NC1 and NC2 during the committee stage of the legislation.

A recent investigation by the i paper found that in total over 13,000 warrants for entry have been issued by courts to energy firms since the voluntary end was introduced in February, with the Ministry of Justice unable to confirm why these warrants were granted.

Courts continue to grant entry warrants to energy firms

Courts have granted over 13,000 warrants allowing energy firms the right to force entry into homes and businesses since a voluntary end to the forced installation of prepayment meters (PPMs) was introduced in February 2023.

There are currently exceptions to the voluntary ban, meaning that energy firms still have the right to force entry to install prepayment meters on businesses and also to enter properties for safety purposes.

But the investigation by the i paper claims that the Ministry of Justice “does not keep data on why energy firms and their agents request warrants to force entry into properties.” Only two applications for warrants have been rejected by the courts since February.

The ongoing campaign to ban forced prepayment meters came after it was shown that energy firms were using the courts to gain warrants to enter vulnerable people’s homes to force them onto more expensive PPMs.

Energy firms have recently signed up to a new voluntary code of conduct, designed to govern the forced installation of prepayment meters. This is due to come into force from 1 October 2023, but the End Fuel Poverty Coalition argues that the guidelines do not go far enough, failing to protect highly vulnerable groups and failing to help to tackle rising energy debt.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“These figures should be sounding alarm bells for ministers, magistrates and at Ofgem. We need urgent clarifications on why these warrants were issued, and the process that energy firms followed to secure them.

“The public have had enough of this scandal and are calling for the government to act to bring in provisions for a ban on forced prepayment meters into the Energy Bill currently in Parliament.”

Almost three-quarters of the public would back changes to the Energy Bill to ensure the Government can ban the forced transfer of homes onto PPMs, according to figures from the Warm This Winter campaign.

MPs urged to ban forced PPMs in Energy Bill

Almost three-quarters of the public would back changes to the Energy Bill to ensure the Government can ban the forced transfer of homes onto prepayment meters (PPMs), according to new figures from the Warm This Winter campaign.

Half of the public believe there should be a permanent ban of the forced transfer of households onto prepayment meters to ensure they pay off their energy debts, with a further 23% backing a ban while energy bills stay high. [1]

The Energy Bill, which has its second reading in the House of Commons on 9 May, currently makes no provision for a ban. This is despite almost two-thirds (62%) of the public being very or somewhat concerned by the PPMs scandal which rocked the energy industry earlier this year. [2]

An investigation by the i paper revealed the extent to which energy firms were using the courts to gain warrants to enter people’s homes to force them onto PPMs. During the investigation, energy firms assured campaigners, ministers, MPs and the media that these meters were not used on vulnerable customers. However, The Times undercover investigation into British Gas’ use of PPMs proved this was not the case.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“During the PPMs scandal, the Secretary of State claimed that he did not have the power to ban the forced transfer of households onto PPMs. We would urge politicians to give the Government these powers to safeguard the most vulnerable from this inhumane process.”

An amendment to the Energy Bill to give Ministers the power to ban forced PPMs has been tabled by Anne McLaughlin. The SNP MP for Glasgow North East chairs the All Party Parliamentary Group on Prepayment Meters and commented:

“The energy firms have lost all respect for Ofgem and they’re running circles around them. If they do breach Ofgem rules, they’re happy to take a slap on the wrist and pay the fines.

“The 18th April Voluntary Code of Conduct to prevent the forced installation of prepayment meters doesn’t go far enough, so we need the power to properly regulate energy firms and safeguard vulnerable prepayment meter customers handed to the Secretary of State for Energy Security & Net Zero.

“The Energy Bill gives us a unique opportunity to do this in legislation, and I’m urging the UK Government to back any amendment that will allow this to happen.”

Liberal Democrat Peer, Lord Teverson, who attempted to introduce a PPM amendment during the Energy Bill’s earlier stages said:

“There is nothing more frightening than to have someone invade your home and force changes on how you run your life.

“That is what having your energy meter changed to prepayment can mean for ordinary families already under stress from high energy costs. The Energy Bill could fix this if the ministers willed it.”

Labour MP for Liverpool Walton Dan Carden added:

“In the middle of the worst cost of living crisis for fifty years energy companies were breaking into the homes of impoverished and vulnerable customers.

“It is clear that throughout last winter, energy companies felt as though they could act with impunity. Indeed, there can be few clearer examples of how our energy system is rigged against struggling families in favour of unscrupulous suppliers.

“The Government must now use the Energy Bill to ban the forced transfer onto prepayment meters in order to protect families in the future from suffering the same inhumane practices. It is the Government’s decision to make.”

Plans for an amendment to the Bill to ban forced PPMs are backed by the End Fuel Poverty Coalition and the Warm This Winter campaign, which last week started a mass action to persuade MPs to support amendments that would help to improve Britain’s broken energy system.

Jonathan Bean from Fuel Poverty Action, which is part of the Warm This Winter campaign, said:

“We were promised no return to the bad old days of forced PPMs. But there is a serious threat of more trauma and suffering this winter unless a permanent ban is put in place. MPs need to act now to protect their constituents.”

Eva Watkinson from Debt Justice said:

“Forcing people in debt onto pre-pay meters adds to the shame, stigma and trauma that they often experience. This disgusting practice must now be banned by the government and unpayable debts written off. ”

Tessa Khan from Uplift added:

“The Energy Bill is back in the House of Commons, but right now, it’s a missed opportunity to start fixing our broken energy system.”

ENDS

For more information, sources and background on the PPMs scandal visit https://www.endfuelpoverty.org.uk/about-fuel-poverty/forced-pre-payment-meter-transfer/

Representatives from other political parties can submit their comments to info@endfuelpoverty.org.uk for inclusion in the version of this story on the End Fuel Poverty Coalition website.

[1] 2,193 people interviewed online between 4-5 May 2023 on behalf of the Warm This Winter campaign. Results are weighted to be representative of the GB adult population.

Question asked was “Do you think the forced transfer of households onto energy prepayment meters to ensure they pay off their energy debts should be banned?”

Yes – permanently (50%)
Yes – while energy bills stay high (23%)
No (11%)
Don’t know (16%)

[2] As above. Question asked was “media investigations revealed that energy firms were using court warrants to force homes to accept prepayment meters (PPMs) in their homes. How concerned were you about these revelations?”

Very concerned (36%)
Somewhat concerned (26%)
Neither concerned nor unconcerned (12%)
Not very concerned (7%)
Not at all concerned (9%)
Don’t know / haven’t heard about this (10%)

Energy firms set for profits boost from fixed tariffs

Research from Future Energy Associates has estimated that two energy firms that have offered new fixed tariffs are set to rake in an average of £484 and £469 respectively in profit on each customer. [1]

The profits will be driven by energy firms buying energy at a fixed cost and selling it to customers at a level below the current Energy Price Guarantee (EPG), but above the likely level of energy bills when the Ofgem price cap comes back into force for consumers from 1 July.

Analysts predict that based on an average household bill under the expected Ofgem Price Cap of £2,064 [2], customers who switch to the deal will lose out by £212 on the Ovo fix or £197 on the SSE offer compared to sticking to the Government’s EPG rate and then moving to a variable tariff governed by the Ofgem price cap from 1 July. [3]

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition which is part of the Warm This Winter campaign, commented:

“The Wild West of the energy market is back, with energy firms trying to make a quick buck from people’s confusion with their energy bills.

“They are playing on the cost of living crisis to try and tempt customers onto a deal that offers security, but appears to come at a very high price to their pocket. People continue to be penalised by Britain’s broken energy system.”

Clem Atwood from Future Energy Associates, commented:

“After record breaking power prices of last winter we are now seeing forward electricity prices come down, meaning suppliers are now paying less for power than accounted for by Ofgem’s price cap.

“While costs continue to come down, suppliers will look to exploit consumer desires to move onto lower rate tariffs by trying to fix customers at close to current rates. Our analysis of costs shows that recent fixed tariffs are likely to make suppliers around 20% profit, whilst fixing customers at unit rates above the forecasted Ofgem price cap.”

Tessa Khan, executive director of Uplift, said:

“Energy companies are addicted to trying to make eye-watering profits at every turn. Having raked in billions in a matter of months from both government support schemes and the pain felt by businesses, they are now starting to turn again to our energy bills.

“It is yet another sign that the government needs to step in and fix the UK’s broken energy system. We need a complete overhaul of the system, including switching to cheaper renewables and funding for insulation, not a return to the bad old days of profiteering energy firms ripping us off.”

Jacky Peacock, Head of Policy at Advice for Renters, commented:

“Many of the families we assist have restricted their energy use to two hours a day and may well think that the fixed price guarantee will result in a saving. We’ll be doing our best to warn them to avoid such offers which are little short of scams.”

Ruth London from Fuel Poverty Action added:

“After all the misery suppliers have inflicted on their customers – unpayable bills, break-ins to impose unwanted prepayment meters, ill health, and cold, dark homes – is this a time for dirty tricks? The suppliers are playing on people’s fears and when we can’t pay their inflated prices we will be blamed and punished for going into debt.”

Notes to Editors

The content of this story is provided based on the assumptions below and the analysis by energy data experts. It should not be taken as formal financial advice. The prices of energy are correct at the time of analysis and may change considerably from the predictions made here.

[1] Tariffs examined: Ovo 1 year fix and SSE 1 Year Fix v28. Supplier Profits Calculated Utilising Comprehensive Methodology from Future Energy Associates (FEA), outlined below. In order to evaluate supplier profits, a comprehensive methodology was employed, which encompassed several steps as detailed below:

Firstly, the FEA collected electricity forward prices for a 12-month period, which is the level an energy supplier could be expected to pay for the energy they then re-sell to domestic customers.
Subsequently, electricity wholesale prices were calculated for each quarter, with both seasonal fluctuations and peak/base prices taken into consideration.
These wholesale prices were adjusted according to each of the non-wholesale price components present in a typical household bill. The analysis differentiated between components that adapt to decreasing wholesale prices and those that remain fixed, irrespective of wholesale price fluctuations.
Following this, electricity retail price unit rates were calculated by multiplying the annual Ofgem consumption values and standing charge forecasts. This process yielded the electricity portion of the household bill.
With respect to gas, the same difference ratio between gas and electricity prices, as derived from Cornwall Insight’s price cap forecasts, was assumed.
Lastly, gas and electricity prices were combined to determine the annual household energy bills, thereby allowing for a comprehensive assessment of supplier profits.

A chart is available which shows that, for the average household, fixing now would result in a higher bill. This model assumes that the whole difference between the cost to the consumer and the cost to the supplier is profit. This assumption is a fair one as Ofgem and suppliers regularly correspond on the costs incurred by suppliers in delivering supply to consumers, which Ofgem then reflects every quarter in its price cap calculations (and therefore has been reflected in the operating cost assumptions made by this model). This process ensures energy firms should not be subject to significant operating losses on providing domestic supply.

This is summarised in the table below.

OVO, SSE Case Study (all numbers are GBP)
Tariff Names	OVO 1 Year Fixed 23 March 2023	SSE 1 Year Fixed v38
Annual Costs to households £	2275	2260

Ofgem Price Caps / EPG	Forecasted Average Ofgem Price Cap (01/04/23 – 30/0304/24)		See note [2]
Annual Costs to households £	2063		See note [2]

Tariff Names	OVO 1 Year Fixed 23 March 2023	SSE 1 Year Fixed v38	Notes
Annual Excess Costs To Households	212	197	I.e. difference between fixed tariff and average Ofgem Price Cap
Annual Supplier Costs of buying energy	1791	1791	Based on FEA calculations on forward energy prices when fixed tariffs announced.
Annual Supplier Profits £	484	469	See above for assumptions.
Annual Profits %	21.27%	20.75%	As a percentage of the cost a consumer could be paying on the Ofgem Price Cap.

[2] Based on EPG, Ofgem Price Cap and latest Cornwall Insight predictions and adjusted by FEA to take into account a full year of price cap changes and the Energy Price Guarantee operating for part of the year.

[3] A chart is available to outline the current situation for energy bills in comparison to the fixed tariffs now on offer.